5 Kasım başkanlık seçimini kazanarak rakibi Kamal'a Harris'e 5 milyon fark atan Cumhuriyetçi Donald Trump, ABD'nin 47.Başkanı seçildi.
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5 Kasım başkanlık seçimini kazanarak rakibi Kamal'a Harris'e 5 milyon fark atan Cumhuriyetçi Donald Trump, ABD'nin 47.Başkanı seçildi.
DÜNYA DENGELERİ NASIL ETKİLENECEK?
Özellikle göreve geldiğinde savaşları bitireceğini daha önce de belirten Trump'ın dünyadaki dengeleri nasıl etkileyeceği akıllara soru işaretlerini getirirken, ABD seçimlerinin Türkiye'ye olası etkileri de merak konusu oldu.
ABD SEÇİMLERİNİN TÜRKİYE'YE OLASI ETKİLERİ NELER OLACAK?
Güvenlik kaynakları ABD başkanlık seçimlerinde Donald J. Trump'ın zaferinin ardından yeni dönemin kodlarının değerlendirildiği bir analiz yayınladı. Analizde Trump yönetiminin, lider odaklı karar alma süreçleri ve pragmatik bir stratejiye ağırlık vermesi sonucunda, uluslararası ilişkilerde daha hesapçı ve müzakereye dayalı bir tavır takınabileceği vurgulanıyor.
TÜRKİYE-ABD İLİŞKİLERİNDE YENİ DÖNEM
Güvenlik kaynaklarının yayınladığı analize göre bu yeni dönemde, Türkiye dahil olmak üzere birçok ülkenin ABD ile ilişkilerini gözden geçirme ve yeniden yapılandırma sürecine girebileceği belirtiliyor. Özellikle Türkiye'nin, ABD'nin bölgesel politikalarıyla örtüşen çıkarları üzerinden bir iş birliği zemininin ortaya çıkabileceği ifade ediliyor.
KÜRESEL LİDERLİK ROLÜ VE GELECEKTEKİ DÜNYA DÜZENİ İÇİN KRİTİK EŞİK
Akademi, 2024 Başkanlık seçimlerinin; ABD'nin küresel liderlik rolünü koruma, yeniden tanımlama ya da bu rolü diğer büyük güçlerle paylaşma konusunda nasıl bir tercih yapacağını ortaya koyacak nitelikte olduğunu belirtti. Seçim, gelecekteki dünya düzeninin şekillenmesinde kritik bir dönemeç olarak değerlendirildi.
CUMHURİYETÇİ PARTİ'NİN DIŞ POLİTİKA HAMLESİ
Yayınlanan analizde Cumhuriyetçi Partinin dış politika stratejisinde caydırıcılık, hibrit müdahale yöntemleri, teknolojik üstünlük ve ekonomik güce odaklandığı ifade edildi. Trump'ın benimsediği "Amerika'yı Yeniden Büyük Yapalım" (MAGA) söyleminin ise geleneksel cumhuriyetçi yönelimin bir uzantısı olarak görüldüğü belirtildi.
TRUMP YÖNETİMİNİN DIŞ POLİTİKADAKİ STRATEJİK ARAÇLARI : GÜÇ, CAYDIRICILIK VE KRİZ YÖNETİMİ
Trump yönetimi, klasik cumhuriyetçi duruş olan küresel askeri ve diplomatik angajmanı sınırlandırmayı, yani ABD'nin mevcut krizlere angaje askeri varlığını azaltmayı amaçlasa da ABD'nin küresel cezalandırıcı gücünü koruması ve güçlendirmesi gerektiğinden bahsetmektedir. Analizde "Vaşington'un temel amacının, rakiplerin kontrolünden sağlamayı umduğu maksimum faydayı anlamsız kılacak ve rakiplerin bu durumdan fayda sağlamasını engelleyecek düzeyde güçlü bir caydırıcılığa sahip olmasıdır." ifadeleri kaydedildi.
TÜRKİYE-ABD İLİŞKİLERİNDE YENİ DÖNEMDE RİSKLER VE FIRSATLAR
Analizde, Trump'ın ikinci başkanlık döneminin hem fırsatlar hem de zorluklar barındırdığının altı çizildi. Öncelikle savunma sanayiinin ve F-35 programı konusundaki kısıtlamaların aşılmasının, Türkiye-ABD ilişkilerinde pozitif bir gündemin oluşturulması açısından kritik bir başlık olarak öne çıktığı vurgulandı. Trump yönetiminin denizaşırı askeri varlıkları azaltma eğilimi ve PYD/YPG'ye verilen desteği yeniden değerlendirme potansiyelinin, Türkiye'nin ABD ile terörizmle mücadele alanında iş birliği yapması için önemli bir zemin oluşturabileceği vurgulandı. Ancak bu tür konularda ilerleme sağlanması, Trump'ın yönetim ekibinin bileşimi ve ABD'nin bölgesel politikalarındaki önceliklerle yakından ilişkili olacaktır. Bölgesel düzeyde ise Trump'ın İran politikasının yeniden sertleşmesi ve İsrail ile Arap ülkeleri arasındaki normalleşme süreçlerinin desteklenmesi, Türkiye'nin bölgesel çıkarlarını hem olumlu hem de olumsuz yönde etkileyebileceği belirtilerek "İran'a yönelik sert politikaların bölgesel bir çatışmayı tetikleme riski, Türkiye'nin güvenlik politikalarını doğrudan ilgilendirecektir. Aynı şekilde Trump yönetiminin kayıtsız şartsız desteğini elde eden İsrail'in bölgedeki etkinliğinin artması, Doğu Akdeniz'deki güç dengelerini Türkiye'nin aleyhine çevirebilir. Bu gelişmeler, Türkiye'nin bölgesel iş birliği ve dengeleme politikalarını daha da derinleştirme ihtiyacını ortaya çıkarabilir." ifadeleri kaydedildi.
Özellikle Mısır ve Yunanistan ile diyalog süreçlerinin derinleştirilmesinin ve bölgesel istikrarı önceleyen girişimlerin sürdürülmesinin, Türkiye'nin Doğu Akdeniz'deki çıkarlarını koruma çabalarına katkı sağlayacağı belirtildi. Trump yönetiminin Ukrayna savaşını sona erdirme çabalarının, Türkiye için Karadeniz'de istikrar ve ekonomik fırsatlar yaratabileceği belirtilerek Ukrayna'nın yeniden inşasında Türk firmalarının rol almasının, Türkiye ABD ilişkilerini güçlendirebilecek bir fırsat olduğu ifade edildi. Analizde, Trump'ın Çin'e yönelik politikalarının, ABD'nin ekonomik üstünlüğünü desteklemek amacıyla gümrük vergileri ve yaptırımlar gibi araçlarla şekilleneceği ifade edildi. Bu sürecin ise Türkiye için yeni tedarik zinciri fırsatları ve enerji projeleri yaratabileceği belirtildi.